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Jun 23
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I have just returned from a fascinating conference at MIT on Security and Human Behaviour and am now preparing for the EU Green Week conference in Brussels. This post explores an issue common to both conferences: paranoia. The security of central interest to the MIT conference was that of people using the Internet. The titles …
May 05
Swine flu
Letter NOT published in the Guardian. Submitted 30 April. My two favorite commentators on the subject of risk have fallen out. Simon Jenkins (29 April) predicts that swine flu will end up with bird flu and Sars in the category of over-hyped scare that never happened. Ben Goldacre (30 April) says that if Simon turns …
Mar 18
Risco
Risk Now available as Risco in Portuguese. See Deus ̩ Brasileiro? for new preface Рin English.
Feb 11
Ban horse riding, or …
Below is a letter to the Guardian, published today (11 February 2009) in reduced form. Jacqui Smith is keen that the Governments classification of drugs should send clear messages to would-be users. One message conveyed by her attack on David Nutt (Drugs adviser says sorry over ecstasy article, 10 February) is that she does not care …
Feb 09
The world’s biggest mega transport project
In December 2007 I delivered a Working Paper entitled Managing risk in a hypermobile world to the OMEGA Project – a project dedicated to thinking about Mega Projects in Transport and Development. I began thus: Transport projects facilitate new connections between trip origins and destinations. In so doing they disturb previous patterns of connection, often …
Feb 03
Vashti revisited
I began my inaugural blog on this website On becoming Vashti as follows: My nomination for the most prescient work of science fiction is The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster. A recent comment on this posting by a former student, June Gibbons, has prompted a further re-reading of The Machine Stops. With each re-reading Forster …
Dec 31
Deus é Brasileiro?
Preface for Risco the Brazilian translation of Risk – to be published in Brazil in March 2009. I first encountered the idea that God might be a Brazilian forty years ago. I was a visiting student at the University of São Paulo. On a trip from São Paulo to Santos I was the passenger of …
Dec 29
Two old men
John Adams and (even older positively venerable) Mayer Hillman are looking for a younger enthusiast to carry on a research project that Mayer and Anne Whalley began at the Policy Studies Institute. In 1971, they conducted a survey of English childrens independent mobility how they got to school, visited friends and so on, whether they …
Nov 05
Proving a negative and the onus of proof
Two assertions that I cannot prove: · No one, anywhere, ever, has been killed by a bicycle bomb. · No life, anywhere, ever, has been saved by the life jacket under their seat. Anywhere is a large place, and ever is a long time. The most one can do is broadcast an appeal for disproving …
Aug 21
Three days national mourning for 12 days death on the road?
Spain’s Prime Minister declared a three period of mourning to mark the Madrid plane crash of 20 August. This reaction to the crash highlights yet again the intractable problem of finding a metric that everyone can agree upon for measuring risk. The crash was what is sometimes referred to as a low-probability high-impact event. High …