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Jul 06
Self driving cars and the child-ball problem
if a ball were to roll onto a road, a human might expect that a child could follow. Artificial intelligence cannot yet provide that level of inferential thinking. This quotation from 2012 has already been overtaken by the extraordinary progress in the development of self-driving cars. But programming a self-driving car to anticipate a child following …
Jul 02
A bargain
From time to time I check on Amazon to see if anyone is buying my 1985 thriller Risk and Freedom – not many. But views about its value vary widely. The act of reading it, and transforming it into a “used” book, apparently increases its value enormously – I would like to think so.. 1 Comment Risk …
Mar 11
A prize!!
This is a graphic record of the event. Jeremy Harrison, the head of the Institute of Risk Management, is laughing because I have just called him a sneaky bastard for inviting me to dinner without warning me that he had this in mind. And I am looking bemused because I was and still am. I …
Nov 03
Been there. Got the T-shirt.
Yesterday was Risk Day in Birmingham’s Town Hall with numerous events and speakers focused on the theme. My contribution was rewarded with a conference T-shirt. I suggested that since The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents has its headquarters in Birmingham they might like to come over to take part in a discussion …
Jun 11
Pater knows best?
Risk compensation the proposition that a persons perception of risk influences their risk-taking behaviour has now become conventional wisdom. No one now disputes that rock climbers with ropes will attempt manoeuvres that they would not attempt without them, or that trapeze artists will attempt manoeuvres with nets that they would not attempt without. The insurance …
May 09
Change has to take root in people’s minds
The main headline in todays Daily Mail reads: £90 fine if you’re texting at the wheel: Minister warns of safety crackdown US experience suggests that the crackdown is unlikely to achieve its desired effect. There the success of attempts to deal with the texting-while-driving problem by means of legislation has been the subject of a …
May 09
The ever receding yet
Historian Niall Ferguson has been reported as apologising for remarks in which he implied that John Maynard Keynes did not care about future generations because he was childless and gay leaving open the cause of Keynes indifference to the long run. This provoked a letter from me to todays Guardian. For non-Guardian readers here it …
Apr 17
The Boston Marathon Bombs
In the aftermath of the 2005 7th July bombings in London I wrote a piece entitled “7/7: What kills you matters – not numbers” I illustrated it with a diagram highlighting the remarkable lack of correlation between quantified measures of risk and common response. I identified two key variables that helped to explain this lack of …
Apr 03
Now wash your hands
I recently visited an exhibition at the Barbican Centre in London entitled The Bride and the Bachelors: Duchamp with Cage, Cunningham, Rauschenberg and Johns More recently I was invited to speak to a conference entitled Risk culture for charities organised by the Institute for Risk Management. I began my conference presentation with an overview of …
Mar 24
The BIGGEST LIE?
Last Thursday (21 March 2013) I attended a conference entitled Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics? Understanding casualty trends and the causes. It was sponsored by the Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety (PACTS). At the conference PACTS, the Department for Transport, and seven other organizations interested in promoting road safety launched a website called www.roadsafetyobservatory.com. …