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Apr
17
2013

The Boston Marathon Bombs

In the aftermath of the 2005 7th July bombings in London I wrote a piece entitled “7/7: What kills you matters – not numbers

I illustrated it with a diagram highlighting the remarkable lack of correlation between quantified measures of risk and common response. I identified two key variables that helped to explain this lack of correlation: the level of control that those taking, or exposed to, the risk felt that they had and, in the case of involuntary risks, the perceived motives of the imposer of the risk.

Risk Amplification

Screen Shot 2013-04-17 at 21.52.23

52 people were killed by the 7/7 bombers. I noted that in Britain at that time “on an average day nine people die and over 800 are injured in road accidents. The mangled metal, the pain of the victims, and the grief of families and friends, one might suppose, are similar in both cases. Measured in terms of life and limb, 7/7 represented six days of death on the road. But thousands do not gather weekly in Trafalgar Square to manifest their collective concern.”  Why?

Simon Jenkins has become a routinely calming and rational voice in the aftermath of such events. Discussing the Boston marathon bombs he provides a good answer in today’s Guardian. He succinctly describes the problem: “Such deeds are senseless murders. … What makes them terrorist is the outside world rushing to hand their perpetrators a megaphone.” See “After the bomb, hysteria is the terrorist’s best weapon”. I recommend it.

Another recommendation from yesterday’s New York Times by Thomas Friedman: Bring On the Next Marathon.

1 comment

1 ping

  1. Conall Boyle says:

    Love your website! Love your analysis (have done so for a long time)

    Would it be at all possible to reverse your logic, and notice that there may well be clever if malign operators who fully realise the impact of a ‘Boston Marathon’-type bombing?

    So why do the security services focus on dim, dreamy outsiders when looking for culprits?

    Surely the more rational, logical answer is to seek out those who would benefit most from such acts?

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