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Nov 05
Seat belts: another look at the data
I am grateful for a question posted today by Carsten Jasner in response to an earlier post of mine – Seat belts again. It has prompted another look at the data: Very interesting! But when the number of car occupant deaths increases while the number of all road user deaths decreases how can the number …
Oct 28
Moral hazard: bonuses, seat belts and condoms
(If experiencing problems with IE7, please try Firefox, Opera or Safari) “Moral hazard is a term that dates back to the 1600s. Until recent times its use has been mostly confined to the insurance industry to refer to behaviour that responds to changes in perceived risk. The industry has noticed that people who have contents …
Oct 16
Final open letter to Executive Director of PACTS
(If experiencing problems with IE7, please try Firefox, Opera or Safari) To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Failing a response, I propose to draw this one-sided correspondence to a close. I believe that I have established: a. that the claim that seat belts have saved 60000 lives …
Oct 06
Third Open Letter to Executive Director of PACTS
To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Thank you for sending me a paper claiming that seat belts have saved 57000 lives in the UK between 1983 and 2007. Is this the source of the 60000 claim posted on your website in 2008? I have discovered that the …
Sep 30
Second open letter to Executive Director of PACTS
To Robert Gifford Executive Director, The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety Dear Rob Im sorry but I must persist. The power and endurance of the myth that PACTS and RoSPA have built around the seat belt law takes a lot of deconstructing. So long as belief in the efficacy of the law persists it …
Sep 22
Seat belts – from the archive
Now in retirement and culling my files in the process of downsizing I came upon the following letter from the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents dated 7 July 1981 shortly before Parliament was to vote on a seat belt law, and encouraging Parliament to vote for the law: TO ALL MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT …
Sep 16
Seat belts again
Yesterday when I showed Mayer Hillman the graphs in my last blog on this subject he complained that they displayed the statistics for all road user deaths and not the statistics for those affected by the seatbelt law, i.e. people in the front seats of cars. My excuse was that at the time I produced …
Sep 08
Yet more myth inflation
Last night at 8pm BBC Radio 4 presented a programme entitled “Where did it all go right?” celebrating the success of Britain’s seat belt law. It will be available on the Radio 4 Listen Again facility for another 6 days. It can be found at http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00mg2v6#synopsis (or if you are too late for the listen again …
Jun 23
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I have just returned from a fascinating conference at MIT on Security and Human Behaviour and am now preparing for the EU Green Week conference in Brussels. This post explores an issue common to both conferences: paranoia. The security of central interest to the MIT conference was that of people using the Internet. The titles …
Mar 06
The World Under Assault: Can Science Beat Terrorism?
The above title advertises a Cambridge Science Festival event, (9 March 2009) in which I have been invited to participate. My answer to the question in the title, will be spelt out in my first PowerPoint slide: No: because paranoia cannot be cured by CCTV, or DNA databases, or ID cards, or CRB checks, or …