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Mar 05
Seat belts – blood on my hands?
I have just found an anonymous, one sentence comment on my blog. It reads: Your campaign against seat belt wearing has already borne fruit: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4411639a6479.html . The link takes you to an interesting story from New Zealand with the headline Seatbelt subterfuge kills driver. The driver who was killed, according to the story, was opposed …
Feb 20
Should you believe in man-made Global Warming?
This question is posed by Philip Stott in two recent postings on his blog entitled “Pascal’s Wager And ˜Global Warming’” and “An Obstinate Rationality“ .Stott’s blog is worth adding to your “favourites” and visiting frequently. He used to give an annual lecture to my students and invariably was awarded top marks in the student assessments …
Feb 12
Seat belts – again
On the first of February 2008 I sent an email to the Department of Transport at – road.safety@dft.gsi.gov.uk. It said: In your press release of 31 January you state: “Seatbelts have prevented an estimated 60,000 deaths and 670,000 serious injuries since 31 January 1983 when seatbelts were made mandatory for drivers and front seat passengers.” …
Jan 31
Myth Inflation
Anniversaries are convenient occasions on which to reinforce myths. Twenty five years ago, 31 January 1983, it became compulsory for occupants of the front seats of cars in the UK to wear seat belts. Today Britains Department for Transport has posted a press release announcing that in the 25 years since the seat belt law …
Jan 07
Probably the best disclaimer in the world
Most risk assessments, warning notices and disclaimers are the legal equivalent of juju charms to ward off lawyers and probably as effective as the kind that believers wear around their necks. This disclaimer for Nelson Rocks Preserve in West Virginia was sent to me by Paul Winston, editorial director of Business Insurance . It is …
Dec 19
Dangerous trees?
Arboricultural Journal 2007, Vol. 30, pp. 95103 This is the published version of a paper prepared for a conference on The Future of Tree Risk Management, held in London on 15 September 2006. Abstract Britain, in the view of former Prime Minister Blair, is in danger of having a wholly disproportionate attitude to the risks …
Dec 07
The demise of the free-range child
In 1971 Mayer Hillman conducted a survey of how English children got about: at what age were they allowed to play in the street, ride a bike, get to school on their own, visit friends and get about the neighbourhood? In 1990 Mayer persuaded me to join him in re-surveying the same schools he had …
Nov 17
Risk compensation deniers
In October 2007 the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety published a Status Report (PDF: 1MB) complaining about my article “Britains Seat Belt Law should be Repealed” (PDF: 0.2MB) (published as “Seat Belt Laws Repeal them?” in the June 2007 issue of the statistical journal Significance). It went on to denounce all those who invoke the …
Nov 12
Risk and Freedom – product recall and replacement
Many thanks to Jim Tubman who noticed that the previously posted version of the book was missing page 89. Further thanks to Jim for inserting it, and adding further bookmarking features. The new, improved product is now online at http://john-adams.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/risk%20and%20freedom.pdf.
Oct 27
“Risk and Freedom” now free online
Now available as a free online download Amazon Review (*****): Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of print for many years it continues to have a profound influence on road safety policy. It provides the first coherent application of the concept of risk compensation to the management …