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Dec 08
The cost of inaction: why cost-benefit analysis seldom settles arguments
Draft for WHO Workshop, Rome, 13-14 December 2007. The cost of inaction: economic valuation in environment and health. Contemplation of the costs of inaction usually provokes questions about the benefits of inaction, which leads to cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis, as a method for settling arguments about action or inaction is enormously seductive. You simply add …
Mar 19
“Ensure you can see where you are putting your feet before walkingâ€: Governance and Compliance
Keynote address to OpRisk Europe Conference, 21 March, London: All risk is subjective. Risk is a word that refers to the future, and that exists only in the imagination. Risk management involves speculating about this future, about things that could go wrong, and about ways of preventing them. In recent years, in the public sector …
Feb 22
Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation: by yours truly
Now on sale. Ive discovered a box with 20 copies, which I am offering through Amazon.co.uk at the original 1985 price of £10. I reproduce the sole Amazon review (*****) below. Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of print for many years it continues to have a …
Aug 21
On becoming Vashti: reflections of a novice blogger
My nomination for the most prescient work of science fiction is The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster. Writing in 1909, not only did he anticipate television, the Internet, video conferencing, email, Amazon, Google and Globalization but, more significantly, the impact that they would have on our lives. It is a short story about a world …
May 18
Driverless Cars and the Trolley Problem
The Trolley Problem is a long pondered ethical thought experiment; it is an intellectual exercise devised to highlight the moral conflicts that can arise in the making of decisions involving inescapable loss of life. Here is how Wikipedia presents it: A runaway trolley is barreling down the railway tracks. Ahead, on the tracks, there are five people tied up …
Apr 29
The Pathway to Driverless Cars and the Sacred Cow Problem
The Pathway to Driverless Cars and the Sacred Cow Problem Last Thursday (April 27, 2017) I was one of two speakers invited to lead the discussion at a National Infrastructure Commission roundtable on Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. The first speaker discussed the Readiness of the road network for connected and autonomous vehicles. My presentation was …
Aug 17
Driverless cars and the sacred cow problem
The promoters of driverless cars have demonstrated remarkable progress in their ability to program their vehicles to respond with extreme deference to pedestrians, cyclists, and cars with human drivers. Such programming confers sacred cow status on all road users not in self-driving vehicles. The developers of autonomous vehicles acknowledge the need for new road safety …
May 11
Risk and Culture
Risk, most dictionaries agree, involves exposure to the possibility of loss or injury. Perceptions of this possibility are embedded in culture and vary enormously over space and time. One frequently encounters the contention that it is important to distinguish between real, actual, objective risks and those that are merely perceived. But all risk is perceived. Risk …
Apr 19
Environmental groups’ failure over HS2
Letter in Telegraph, 17 April2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/04/17/letters-for-all-its-faults-the-eu-is-a-bold-project-that-still-d/ Environmental groups failure over HS2 SIR It is now very clear indeed that the hugely expensive HS2 project is fundamentally flawed; yet it continues to make progress towards delivery in spite of compelling evidence justifying its cancellation. Its passage has been assisted by two important factors that are as …
Jul 25
The Driverless Car Revolution – Amazon Review
Driverless Car Revolution: buy mobility not metal by Rutt Bridges Review for Amazon.co.uk **** 25 June, 2015 Highly recommended, but Mobility Not Metal is an impressively clear and comprehensive account of the potential of the driverless car revolution with a significant omission that we will come to shortly. It provides an intelligible description of both …