Spain’s Prime Minister declared a three period of mourning to mark the Madrid plane crash of 20 August. This reaction to the crash highlights yet again the intractable problem of finding a metric that everyone can agree upon for measuring risk. The crash was what is sometimes referred to as a low-probability high-impact event. “High …
Category Archive: risk
Aug
15
2008
Cycle helmets and the importance of culture
On 11 August the Guardian published an article entitled “Do cyclists really need helmets?” It noted the difference in cycling culture between continental northern Europe and elsewhere. I submitted a letter on the subject that they declined to publish. So I have submitted it to my blog where I have a 100% success rate. Do …
Jun
14
2008
Maths and the City
Published in The GuardianThursday June 12, 2008 Ian Stewart asserts that his university’s mathematics students “earn more money, on average, than those studying any other degree subject” and that “their ability to handle technical ideas is highly prized, and rewarded” (Letters, June 7). His assumption, shared by most other contributors to the current debate about …
May
09
2008
Are we doomed to live in an oppressive safety culture?
Martin Parkinson raises an interesting question (comment on previous post): what should be the reaction to an accident that, a priori, was an extremely low probability event? He suggests that “any attempt to reverse the counterproductive aspects of ‘health and safety culture’ is doomed to failure”. After an accident he argues that most people will …
May
04
2008
Where and when is shared space safe?
Presentation for PRIAN Public Realm Course, Bedford, 28 April 2008. Traditional highway engineering assumes that safety requires the spatial segregation of pedestrians, cyclists and motorized vehicles or, where this is not possible, rigorously enforced rules, signs and signals dictating temporal segregation. Road users, according to the established paradigm, are irresponsible, stupid, selfish automatons whose safety …
Apr
06
2008
Making God laugh (again): a risk management tutorial
The words “risk” and “management” sit uncomfortably alongside each other. Many people believe that it is possible to distinguish “real”, “actual” or “objective” risk from “perceived” risk. But all risk is perceived. It is a word that refers to the future, a future that exists only in our imaginations. Those who call themselves risk managers …
Feb
12
2008
Seat belts – again
On the first of February 2008 I sent an email to the Department of Transport at – road.safety@dft.gsi.gov.uk. It said: “In your press release of 31 January you state: “Seatbelts have prevented an estimated 60,000 deaths and 670,000 serious injuries since 31 January 1983 when seatbelts were made mandatory for drivers and front seat passengers.” …
Jan
31
2008
Myth Inflation
Anniversaries are convenient occasions on which to reinforce myths. Twenty five years ago, 31 January 1983, it became compulsory for occupants of the front seats of cars in the UK to wear seat belts. Today Britain’s Department for Transport has posted a press release announcing that in the 25 years since the seat belt law …
Nov
17
2007
Risk compensation deniers
In October 2007 the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety published a Status Report (PDF: 1MB) complaining about my article “Britain’s Seat Belt Law should be Repealed” (PDF: 0.2MB) (published as “Seat Belt Laws – Repeal them?” in the June 2007 issue of the statistical journal Significance). It went on to denounce all those who invoke …
Oct
27
2007
“Risk and Freedom” now free online
Now available as a free online download Amazon Review (*****): Risk and Freedom is a book of historic significance. Published in 1985 and out of print for many years it continues to have a profound influence on road safety policy. It provides the first coherent application of the concept of “risk compensation” to the management …
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